THE METHODOLOGY OF FORECASTING THE RESULTS OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE REGION

The article proposes a methodology for predicting the results of the agro-industrial complex of the region. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a flexible and easy–touse proposed methodology. The article uses the innodiversification approach as the main tool, which includes a combination of innovative, diversification and synergetic approaches with the construction of economic and mathematical models based on the correlation and regression method. The basis of the innodiversification approach to forecasting the results of the agro-industrial complex of the region is the formation of such an investment structure that could clearly achieve the goals of the region in the processes of production and processing of agricultural products. The innodiversification approach can be successfully applied, not only for forward and reverse forecasting, but also when using the scenario method of iteration to solve the problem of optimizing the use of investments in agricultural activities, food and beverage production. A methodology for the formation of a multilevel, multifactorial forecasting model, including eight steps, is proposed. The developed methodology for predicting the performance indicators of agro-industrial complexes allows, unlike existing ones, using an innodiversification approach to build an adequate flexible multi-level multifactorial model for direct, reverse and scenario types of forecasts. An algorithm has been developed for the implementation of the proposed methodology for forming a model for predicting performance indicators of the agro-industrial complex of the region.

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