ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY INDICATORS HITTING THE SAFE ZONE (based on materials from Omsk region)

The methodology for estimation the probability of hitting a set of socio-economic indicators into the safe value range, characterizing the acceptable level of economic security from the point of view of the current socio-economic policy, is considered in the article. The aim of the work is analysis of the law of joint distribution of the most important economic indicators of the Omsk region, considered as continuous random variables, as well as calculation of the probability of their hitting into a certain conditional favorable range of values. According to official statistical data, using various verification criteria, it has been established that the rates of change of such indicators of the Omsk region as industrial production volume, agricultural products volume, investments in basic assets volume and others haves a normal distribution with the corresponding parameters. The Monte Carlo-based modeling algorithms are presented that allow to calculate an interval estimate of the probability of all indicators hitting into their specified safe value interval. The results of the research can be used by executive authorities in the event of changes in the threshold values of indicators and maximum deviations from them, as well as in forecasting time statistical series of indicators. Practical calculations allowed us to conclude a relatively high level of economic security of the Omsk region from the point of view of the selected set of indicators, threshold values and the safe value area in conjunction with the selected range of statistical data.

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