The Russian economy 2023: inevitable paradigm shifts and development forecasts

Based on a retrospective analysis and dialectical approach, the article analyzes the processes of transformation of the Russian economic system provoked by the introduction of unprecedented sanctions and restrictions imposed by the countries of the collective West, led by the United States, in response to Russia's special military operation to protect the population of the DPR and LPR; based on the results of situational analysis and forecasting, the necessity of creating an up-to-date model of the national economy, the formation of a new economic policy 2.0 and the adjustment of socio-economic development programs taking into account the changed geopolitical and geo-economic situation is justified. The authors, based on the findings of factor analysis and expert assessments, propose to change approaches to the process of planning and determining the final goals of economic development; using abstract-logical and statistical-economic methods, they prove the need to combine the principle of reliance on own resources and openness of the Russian economy; relying on an evidence-based approach, they justify the leading role of the state in developing and conducting an effective anti-sanctions policy based on the study of the relevant experience of Iran, Cuba and the DPRK. The paper proves the need for a comprehensive solution to the problems of economic growth and ensuring ITS in combination with the settlement of systemic problems of the Russian economy, such as low labor productivity, shortage of qualified personnel, technological backwardness, corruption and dependence on raw materials. The authors consider the formation of an understandable and popularly supported model of a nationally oriented economic system as an unconditional factor of consolidation of society, without which it is impossible to effectively pursue an anti-sanctions policy and overcome artificially created obstacles to economic growth, and subsequently proceed to the process of sustainable socio-economic development. In addition, the article substantiates the need to create favorable conditions for the continuation of deindustrialization and import substitution programs, the implementation of which will allow Russia to preserve its technological sovereignty and subjectivity.

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