THE POSSIBILITIES OF NOWCASTING EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS USING BUSINESS SURVEYS OF REPRESENTATIVES OF MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES
https://doi.org/10.24412/2225-8264-2024-1-60-66
Abstract
The article is devoted to testing the possibility of using the results of Rosstat surveys of manufacturing industry enterprises for operational monitoring (nowcasting) of employment indicators in the industry and the Russian labor market as a whole. The work used the results of surveys about the level in the current month and the prospects for changes in the next 3 months of the number of employees, which are ahead of the release of official statistics by at least 1-1.5 months. The study shows that the survey results primarily reflect the situation with companies’ demand for labor. The results obtained demonstrate that in Russia the connection between surveys and statistics is manifested neither through the number of employees (including taking into account the required workers), in contrast to foreign studies, but through the total duration of time worked by employees, which is due to the characteristics of the domestic labor market. The greatest correlation between survey indicators and statistics was observed when comparing cyclical components (deviation from trend) and annual growth rates. Also, surveys in some cases, thanks to the expectations component, exhibit additional anticipatory properties (in addition to faster publication), indicating a change in the indicator 1-3 months earlier.
About the Author
R. E. Gartvich
Dostoevsky Omsk State University; Omsk Region Branch of the Siberian Main Directorate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Roman E. Gartvich, Postgraduate student; Leading Economist
AuthorID: 1015207
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Review
For citations:
Gartvich R.E. THE POSSIBILITIES OF NOWCASTING EMPLOYMENT INDICATORS USING BUSINESS SURVEYS OF REPRESENTATIVES OF MANUFACTURING ENTERPRISES. Herald of Siberian Institute of Business and Information Technologies. 2024;13(1):60-66. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24412/2225-8264-2024-1-60-66
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