A SCENARIO-BASED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF AN ORGANIZATION’S ECONOMIC SECURITY

The article reflects the results of a study of problematic issues that reveal the specific features of risk management scenarios, taking into account the criteria for achieving the economic security of the organization. The considered methodology of risk management scenarios has predetermined the possibility to fix their key stages: identification, analysis, forecasting and monitoring of risks. The purpose of the study is to determine the dependence of the production activity of an economic entity on destabilizing factors in the form of challenges, threats and risks, as well as to identify instrumental risk management methods and the causes of changes in the economic security of the organization as a result of the negative impact of certain threats. The following research objectives are defined: to substantiate the theoretical aspects of risk management; to identify methods for ensuring the economic security of an organization in the face of global challenges and external threats; to explore the methodological tools of risk management scenarios. Process and scenario approaches are used as methodological tools. In order to obtain the necessary results, the methods of description, generalization, construction, comparative analysis and the method of logic were used. The results of the study should be considered as: substantiation of the essence and content of the concept of «risk management scenario», which allows changing approaches to management decisions in conditions of uncertainty and variability; development of a risk management scenario that includes stages, each of which is subject to cyclical repetition, and the management process itself is implemented continuously and invariably over time.

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